Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 27

Kick-off

Sun 30 Mar 2025

16:15

Venue

Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Auxerre Win

54%

Auxerre

1.84

28%

Draw

3.51

17%

Montpellier

5.80

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

17.0%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

12.3%

Home win

0 – 0

11.8%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.44

Auxerre xG

Total xG

2.13

0.69

Montpellier xG

54%
28%
17%
AuxerreDrawMontpellier

1.84

54%

Home win

3.51

28%

Draw

5.80

17%

Away win

Goals Markets

63%

Over 1.5

1.59

37%

Under 1.5

2.70

36%

Over 2.5

2.78

64%

Under 2.5

1.56

17%

Over 3.5

5.88

83%

Under 3.5

1.20

7%

Over 4.5

14.29

93%

Under 4.5

1.08

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

39%

BTTS Yes

2.56

61%

BTTS No

1.64

Clean Sheet

50%

Auxerre

2.00

24%

Montpellier

4.22

Win to Nil

27%

Auxerre

3.69

4%

Montpellier

24.47

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 11.8 8.2 2.9 0.7 0.1
1 17.0 11.8 4.1 1.0 0.2
2 12.3 8.5 3.0 0.7 0.1
3 5.9 4.1 1.4 0.3 0.1
4 2.1 1.5 0.5 0.1
5 0.6 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.440
λ Away (xG) 0.695
Total xG 2.135
League avg home goals 1.509
League avg away goals 1.421
Auxerre attack strength 0.913
Auxerre defence strength 0.818
Montpellier attack strength 0.598
Montpellier defence strength 1.046
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 26 / 60