Auxerre vs Lille – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lille (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Auxerre face Lille.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Lille travel to Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps to take on Auxerre. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lille have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lille are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Auxerre have won 1, Lille 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 2–0 with Auxerre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Lille trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 51% versus Lille 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 51% | Lille 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.92 xG and Lille 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.760 / defence 0.971 | Lille attack 0.991 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.300. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lille's defence strength of 0.751 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Auxerre games / 43 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 27% | Draw 30% | Lille 43%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Lille 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 50% | Lille 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 27% | Draw 30% | Lille 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Auxerre 0.92 / Lille 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.760 / def 0.971 | Lille attack 0.991 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Lille (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Lille xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Lille kick off?
Auxerre vs Lille is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
Where is Auxerre vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Lille part of?
Auxerre vs Lille is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 27% chance of winning, Lille a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Auxerre and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lille?
Record (6 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 2 | Lille 3W.
What form are Auxerre and Lille in?
Auxerre (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
27%
3.72
30%
3.36
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.17
1.25
Lille xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
8%
12.99
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 14.2 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.25 for Lille, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Auxerre have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 10W 11D 22L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille's form line: 23W 10D 10L from 43 games, 1.84 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lille are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Auxerre.
Venue Form
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.24 PPG from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L).
On the road, Lille have gone 12W 3D 6L from 21 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.49 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Lille in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 10W 11D 22L in their last 43 games (0.95 PPG), while Lille have gone 23W 10D 10L in their last 43 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.24 PPG; Lille away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Lille in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2022, when Lille won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Lille specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
2
Draws
3
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lille?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Lille have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Lille 0-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 43%, Lille 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Auxerre) and 43% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lille in 43%; Auxerre have failed to score in 43% of games; Lille in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Auxerre's recent matches and 33% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Auxerre's recent games and 43% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Lille tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Lille in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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