Auxerre vs Le Havre – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Auxerre host Le Havre at in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 May 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Auxerre — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Auxerre's home record at : 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Auxerre at 1.20 PPG versus Le Havre's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Le Havre have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Auxerre.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Le Havre have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 47% versus Le Havre 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 50% | Le Havre 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.25 xG and Le Havre 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.918 / defence 1.132 | Le Havre attack 0.899 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.325. Data: 36 Auxerre games / 36 Le Havre games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 33% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 37%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Le Havre 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Auxerre 40% | Le Havre 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 33% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Auxerre 1.25 / Le Havre 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.918 / def 1.132 | Le Havre attack 0.899 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Le Havre xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Le Havre kick off?
Auxerre vs Le Havre is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Saturday 29 May 2027.
What competition is Auxerre vs Le Havre part of?
Auxerre vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 33% chance of winning, Le Havre a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Auxerre and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Le Havre?
Record (6 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 4W.
What form are Auxerre and Le Havre in?
Auxerre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Le Havre (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 0.92x the league average against Le Havre's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
33%
3.05
30%
3.35
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.60
1.35
Le Havre xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
9%
11.74
11%
9.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.35 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre's recent record stands at 7W 10D 19L from 36 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 7W 15D 14L across 36 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 0.86 PPG, Le Havre on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 5W 4D 8L from 17 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 2W 7D 8L across 17 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.92 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 7W 10D 19L in their last 36 games (0.86 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 7W 15D 14L in their last 36 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Le Havre away?
Auxerre's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.12 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Auxerre's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
1
Draws
4
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Le Havre have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Le Havre 1-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 41%, Le Havre 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Auxerre) and 18% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 47% of games; Le Havre in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Auxerre's recent matches and 41% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Auxerre's recent games and 18% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Le Havre tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.