Auxerre 2-2 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Angers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Auxerre welcome Angers to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Auxerre have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Angers stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Angers have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Angers have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Angers in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 64% versus Angers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 51% | Angers 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.45 xG and Angers 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.860 / defence 1.150 | Angers attack 0.900 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.334. Data: 1 Auxerre games / 39 Angers games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 38% | Draw 27% | Angers 35%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Angers 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 60% | Angers 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 38% | Draw 27% | Angers 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Auxerre 1.45 / Angers 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.860 / def 1.150 | Angers attack 0.900 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Angers xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Angers kick off?
Auxerre vs Angers kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Angers?
Auxerre 2 - 2 Angers.
Where is Auxerre vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Angers part of?
Auxerre vs Angers is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 38% chance of winning, Angers a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Auxerre and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Angers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Auxerre and Angers in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Angers (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.86) and Angers's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
38%
2.63
27%
3.70
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.83
1.38
Angers xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
10%
10.47
8%
12.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.38 for Angers, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre come into this having played 39 games, going 19W 13D 7L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Angers sit at 1.08 PPG from 39 outings (10W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Angers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Angers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Auxerre's home form reads 10W 5D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Angers have taken 0.79 points per game from 19 outings (2W 9D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.13 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Angers
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Angers in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 19W 13D 7L in their last 39 games (1.79 PPG), while Angers have gone 10W 12D 17L in their last 39 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Angers away?
Auxerre's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.84 PPG; Angers away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Angers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Angers in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Angers runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Auxerre's record when hosting Angers specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Auxerre
3
Draws
2
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Angers?
From 8 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 3, Angers have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Auxerre 3-1 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Angers?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Auxerre at 63%, Angers at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Auxerre) and 42% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Angers in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Angers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Auxerre's games and 68% of Angers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Auxerre's recent games and 42% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Angers tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Angers in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre and Angers share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 2, as Auxerre and Angers drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.45 xG and Angers 1.38 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Angers attack 0.90 / defence 1.03, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 38% | Draw 27% | Angers 35%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 51%, Angers 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Angers's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Angers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.