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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Angers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Toulouse beat Angers 0-4 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 0.98 xG and Toulouse 1.64 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Angers fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Toulouse outscored their 1.64 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.77 / defence 1.13 against Toulouse attack 1.06 / defence 0.80, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Angers 21% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 51%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 40%, Toulouse 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Toulouse's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Angers 1.58 PPG, Toulouse 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights