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Stade Brestois 29 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Angers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stade Brestois 29 beat Angers 0-2 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.61 xG and Stade Brestois 29 0.98 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Angers fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Stade Brestois 29 outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.78 / defence 0.93 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.88 / defence 1.20, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Angers 52% | Draw 25% | Stade Brestois 29 23%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Stade Brestois 29 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 28%, Stade Brestois 29 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Angers 1.05 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.26 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights