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Angers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stade Brestois 29.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Angers beat Stade Brestois 29 2-0 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.72 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.96 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.85 / defence 1.54 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.98 / defence 1.33, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Angers 33% | Draw 24% | Stade Brestois 29 43%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Angers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 43%, Stade Brestois 29 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Angers 1.55 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights