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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Angers and Rennes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Angers and Rennes finished level at 1-1 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.64 xG and Rennes 1.05 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.81 / defence 0.94 against Rennes attack 0.87 / defence 1.29, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Angers 51% | Draw 25% | Rennes 24%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 31%, Rennes 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.

Rennes's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Angers 1.08 PPG, Rennes 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Rennes (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights