Angers 2-4 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Angers at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Angers vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Angers and Reims meet at Stade Raymond-Kopa in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 31 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Angers's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Angers have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Angers have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stade Raymond-Kopa — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Reims (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Reims have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Angers, 1.10 for Reims — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Angers 1W, Reims 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Reims winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Angers — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Reims — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 57% versus Reims 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 48% | Reims 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.27 xG and Reims 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.791 / defence 0.922 | Reims attack 0.853 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.575. Angers's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Angers games / 42 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 35% | Draw 31% | Reims 34%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Reims 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Angers at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Angers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Angers 40% | Reims 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 35% | Draw 31% | Reims 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Angers 1.27 / Reims 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.791 / def 0.922 | Reims attack 0.853 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.575 • Poisson stance: Angers (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Reims xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Reims kick off?
Angers vs Reims kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 31 August 2022 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Reims?
Angers 2 - 4 Reims.
Where is Angers vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Reims part of?
Angers vs Reims is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 35% chance of winning, Reims a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Angers and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Reims?
Record (2 meetings): Angers 1W | Draws 0 | Reims 1W.
What form are Angers and Reims in?
Angers (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Reims (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Angers's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Reims's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Reims's attack (0.85x) against Angers's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
35%
2.84
31%
3.23
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Angers xG
Total xG
2.51
1.24
Reims xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Angers and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Angers and 1.24 for Reims, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Angers's recent record stands at 10W 13D 19L from 42 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Angers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 11W 15D 16L across 42 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Angers against 1.14 for Reims. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Angers have managed 8W 3D 10L from 21 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reims's away record stands at 6W 8D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Angers are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.14 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Early Season
Reims
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Reims in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 10W 13D 19L in their last 42 games (1.02 PPG), while Reims have gone 11W 15D 16L in their last 42 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Reims away?
Angers's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.29 PPG; Reims away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Angers have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Angers
1
Draws
3
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Reims?
From 6 meetings on record, Angers have won 2, Reims have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Reims 0-1 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 43%, Reims 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Angers) and 38% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Angers have failed to score in 33% of games; Reims in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Angers's recent matches and 57% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Angers's recent games and 38% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Reims tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Reims in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Angers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Angers 2-4 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.27 xG and Reims 1.24 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Reims outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.79 / defence 0.92 against Reims attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 35% | Draw 31% | Reims 34%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 48%, Reims 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Reims's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.02 PPG, Reims 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reims (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.