🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Angers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris Saint Germain beat Angers 0-3 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 0.91 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.53 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Angers fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.74 / defence 0.95 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.28 / defence 0.84, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Angers 21% | Draw 29% | Paris Saint Germain 50%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 30%, Paris Saint Germain 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights