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Nice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Angers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nice beat Angers 0-2 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.70 xG and Nice 1.09 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Angers fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Nice outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.91 / defence 1.03 against Nice attack 0.91 / defence 1.30, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Angers 52% | Draw 24% | Nice 24%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Nice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 29%, Nice 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Nice's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Angers 1.15 PPG, Nice 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Nice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights