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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Angers run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Nantes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Angers beat Nantes 4-1 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.30 xG and Nantes 0.90 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Angers beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.81 / defence 0.96 against Nantes attack 0.83 / defence 0.99, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Angers 46% | Draw 28% | Nantes 26%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 29%, Nantes 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.

Nantes's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Angers 1.12 PPG, Nantes 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Nantes (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights