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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Angers and Monaco share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Angers and Monaco finished level at 1-1 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.21 xG and Monaco 1.17 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.69 / defence 1.02 against Monaco attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Angers 37% | Draw 28% | Monaco 35%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 29%, Monaco 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.

Monaco's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights