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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Monaco cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Angers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monaco beat Angers 0-2 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.21 xG and Monaco 1.73 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Angers fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.74 / defence 1.27 against Monaco attack 0.97 / defence 1.10, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Angers 26% | Draw 25% | Monaco 49%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 41%, Monaco 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Monaco's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Angers 1.53 PPG, Monaco 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Monaco (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights