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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Angers edge out Metz 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Angers beat Metz 1-0 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 2.54 xG and Metz 1.37 xG, a combined 3.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Angers fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Metz landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 1.09 / defence 1.22 against Metz attack 0.88 / defence 1.54, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Angers 63% | Draw 18% | Metz 19%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 32%, Metz 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.

Metz's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Angers 1.11 PPG, Metz 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights