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Stalemate at Angers's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 28, as Angers and Lyon drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.18 xG and Lyon 1.43 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Angers fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lyon landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.80 / defence 1.06 against Lyon attack 1.09 / defence 0.99, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Angers 31% | Draw 26% | Lyon 43%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 30%, Lyon 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Lyon's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights