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Shock result as Lille defy the odds to beat Angers 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lille beat Angers 0-1 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.44 xG and Lille 1.12 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Angers fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Lille attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Angers 44% | Draw 26% | Lille 29%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Lille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 30%, Lille 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Lille's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Lille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights