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Lille cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Angers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lille beat Angers 0-2 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 0.90 xG and Lille 1.64 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Angers fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.66 / defence 1.26 against Lille attack 0.91 / defence 0.91, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Angers 21% | Draw 25% | Lille 55%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 41%, Lille 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Lille's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Angers 1.45 PPG, Lille 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Lille (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights