Angers vs Le Havre – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Angers vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Le Havre make the trip to Stade Raymond-Kopa to face Angers in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Angers have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Angers have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Le Havre (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Angers against 0.90 for Le Havre. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Angers lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Angers — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Le Havre — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 42% versus Le Havre 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Angers 31% | Le Havre 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.05 xG and Le Havre 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.764 / defence 1.060 | Le Havre attack 0.895 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.336. Angers's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Angers games / 36 Le Havre games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Angers 28% | Draw 33% | Le Havre 39%. Fair-value odds: Angers 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Le Havre 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Angers 30% | Le Havre 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 28% | Draw 33% | Le Havre 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Angers 1.05 / Le Havre 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.764 / def 1.060 | Le Havre attack 0.895 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Le Havre xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Le Havre kick off?
Angers vs Le Havre is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
Where is Angers vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Le Havre part of?
Angers vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 28% chance of winning, Le Havre a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Angers and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Le Havre?
Record (4 meetings): Angers 1W | Draws 2 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Angers and Le Havre in?
Angers (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Le Havre (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Angers's attack at 0.76x the league average against Le Havre's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.90x) against Angers's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
28%
3.54
33%
3.05
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Angers xG
Total xG
2.32
1.27
Le Havre xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
8%
12.58
14%
7.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Angers and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Angers and 1.27 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Angers have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 10W 9D 17L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Angers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Havre's form line: 7W 15D 14L from 36 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Angers against 1.00 for Le Havre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Angers have posted 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 2W 7D 9L from 18 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Angers are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.92 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 10W 9D 17L in their last 36 games (1.08 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 7W 15D 14L in their last 36 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Le Havre away?
Angers's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.28 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Angers have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Angers
2
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Angers have won 1, Le Havre have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Angers 1-1 Le Havre.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 39%, Le Havre 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Angers and 22% for Le Havre.
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Angers have failed to score in 33% of games; Le Havre in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Angers's recent matches and 44% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Angers's recent games and 22% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Le Havre tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.