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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Angers and Le Havre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Angers and Le Havre finished level at 1-1 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.54 xG and Le Havre 1.32 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.90 / defence 1.19 against Le Havre attack 0.84 / defence 1.14, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Angers 40% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 30%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 42%, Le Havre 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Le Havre's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Angers arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights