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Angers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Auxerre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Angers beat Auxerre 2-0 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.40 xG and Auxerre 0.97 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Auxerre landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.75 / defence 0.93 against Auxerre attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Angers 47% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 26%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 29%, Auxerre 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.

Auxerre's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Angers 1.02 PPG, Auxerre 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights