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Angers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Auxerre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Angers beat Auxerre 2-0 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.87 xG and Auxerre 1.57 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Auxerre landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.88 / defence 1.34 against Auxerre attack 0.89 / defence 1.38, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Angers 43% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 31%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 42%, Auxerre 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Auxerre's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Angers 1.58 PPG, Auxerre 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights