Ajaccio 0-3 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajaccio vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Auxerre make the trip to Stade François Coty to face Ajaccio in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Ajaccio (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ajaccio at Stade François Coty this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Auxerre have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Auxerre are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ajaccio lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 0.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Auxerre winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ajaccio half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 30% versus Auxerre 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 31% | Auxerre 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 0.93 xG and Auxerre 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.573 / defence 1.165 | Auxerre attack 0.701 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.261. Ajaccio's attack strength of 0.573 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Ajaccio games / 29 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 31% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 37%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Auxerre 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 0.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 30% | Auxerre 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 31% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Ajaccio 0.93 / Auxerre 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.573 / def 1.165 | Auxerre attack 0.701 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Auxerre xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Auxerre kick off?
Ajaccio vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Auxerre?
Ajaccio 0 - 3 Auxerre.
Where is Ajaccio vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Auxerre part of?
Ajaccio vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 31% chance of winning, Auxerre a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ajaccio and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Auxerre?
Record (3 meetings): Ajaccio 0W | Draws 2 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Ajaccio and Auxerre in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Auxerre (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ajaccio's attack rating (0.57) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.70x) against Ajaccio's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
31%
3.21
32%
3.10
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
1.96
1.03
Auxerre xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 14.6 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Ajaccio and 1.03 for Auxerre, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 67 outings, Ajaccio have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 28W 12D 27L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Auxerre's form line: 25W 21D 21L from 67 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Ajaccio against 1.43 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ajaccio have posted 1.58 PPG from 33 outings (16W 4D 13L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 11W 10D 12L from 33 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ajaccio are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.22 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 28W 12D 27L in their last 67 games (1.43 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 25W 21D 21L in their last 67 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Auxerre away?
Ajaccio's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.58 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Auxerre in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Auxerre have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Auxerre won 0-3 on 9 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajaccio have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ajaccio
2
Draws
4
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 0, Auxerre have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2024, when Ajaccio 0-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 27%, Auxerre 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Ajaccio) and 48% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Ajaccio have failed to score in 46% of games; Auxerre in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 61% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Ajaccio's recent games and 48% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Auxerre tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ajaccio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Ajaccio 0-3 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 0.93 xG and Auxerre 1.03 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ajaccio fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Auxerre outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.57 / defence 1.17 against Auxerre attack 0.70 / defence 1.16, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 31% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 37%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 31%, Auxerre 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Auxerre's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajaccio 1.43 PPG, Auxerre 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Ajaccio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.