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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SJK edge out VPS 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SJK beat VPS 1-2 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.34 xG and SJK 1.40 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.71 / defence 0.86 against SJK attack 1.01 / defence 1.20, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VPS 35% | Draw 27% | SJK 38%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 65%, SJK 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VPS's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

SJK's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VPS 1.30 PPG, SJK 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights