VPS 2-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VPS at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VPS vs Mariehamn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Mariehamn travel to Lemonsoft Stadion to take on VPS. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 July 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, VPS have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lemonsoft Stadion, VPS have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — VPS are significantly better at Lemonsoft Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mariehamn stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VPS 1.20 PPG, Mariehamn 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for VPS, 0 for Mariehamn and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jun 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Mariehamn trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VPS 54% versus Mariehamn 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 57% | Mariehamn 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.57 xG and Mariehamn 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 1.032 / defence 1.037 | Mariehamn attack 0.820 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.510. Data: 38 VPS games / 37 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 43% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 30%. Fair-value odds: VPS 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Mariehamn 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VPS at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VPS 80% | Mariehamn 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 43% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG VPS 1.57 / Mariehamn 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 1.032 / def 1.037 | Mariehamn attack 0.820 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.510 • Poisson stance: VPS (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Mariehamn xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs Mariehamn kick off?
VPS vs Mariehamn kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Mariehamn?
VPS 2 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is VPS vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Mariehamn part of?
VPS vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 43% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both VPS and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Mariehamn?
Record (4 meetings): VPS 2W | Draws 2 | Mariehamn 0W.
What form are VPS and Mariehamn in?
VPS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VPS's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Mariehamn's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.64
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
VPS xG
Total xG
2.86
1.28
Mariehamn xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
6%
16.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are VPS and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for VPS and 1.28 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VPS's recent record stands at 24W 7D 13L from 44 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 22L across 44 games — 0.95 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours VPS by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mariehamn heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VPS have managed 11W 5D 5L from 21 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 5W 5D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VPS are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.07 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 24W 7D 13L in their last 44 games (1.80 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 10W 12D 22L in their last 44 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or Mariehamn away?
VPS's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.81 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.95 PPG.
Have VPS or Mariehamn been keeping clean sheets recently?
VPS have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Mariehamn in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VPS and Mariehamn runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
VPS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jun 2025, when VPS won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VPS's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
VPS
3
Draws
1
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 6, Mariehamn have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when VPS 4-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between VPS and Mariehamn?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 62%, Mariehamn 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (VPS) and 52% (Mariehamn).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of VPS's games and 62% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VPS vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of VPS's recent games and 52% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VPS and Mariehamn tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VPS edge out Mariehamn 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat Mariehamn 2-1 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.57 xG and Mariehamn 1.28 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 1.03 / defence 1.04 against Mariehamn attack 0.82 / defence 0.96, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 43% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 30%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 57%, Mariehamn 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Mariehamn's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VPS arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.