🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as VPS edge out Kooteepee 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VPS beat Kooteepee 2-1 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Relegation Round - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.96 xG and Kooteepee 1.16 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.76 / defence 0.93 against Kooteepee attack 0.75 / defence 1.54, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VPS 55% | Draw 24% | Kooteepee 21%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 59%, Kooteepee 82%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VPS's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Kooteepee's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, VPS arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was vindicated by the result. VPS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm. Kooteepee (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 2.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights