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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as VPS edge out Kooteepee 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VPS beat Kooteepee 3-2 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.72 xG and Kooteepee 0.99 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. VPS beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kooteepee outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.70 / defence 0.90 against Kooteepee attack 0.70 / defence 1.56, drawn from 42/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VPS 53% | Draw 26% | Kooteepee 20%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 55%, Kooteepee 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VPS's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Kooteepee's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, VPS arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.70. Form held, and they took the win. VPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm. Kooteepee (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights