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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Inter Turku cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over VPS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter Turku beat VPS 0-2 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.95 xG and Inter Turku 1.58 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. VPS fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 1.30 / defence 1.26 against Inter Turku attack 1.01 / defence 0.98, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it VPS 47% | Draw 22% | Inter Turku 32%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Inter Turku win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 59%, Inter Turku 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VPS's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Inter Turku's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VPS 1.66 PPG, Inter Turku 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter Turku win broke the near-deadlock. VPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter Turku (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights