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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Haka defy the odds to beat VPS 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Haka beat VPS 1-2 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.17 xG and Haka 1.05 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Haka outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.75 / defence 0.78 against Haka attack 0.90 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VPS 39% | Draw 29% | Haka 33%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Haka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 68%, Haka 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VPS's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Haka's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VPS 1.42 PPG, Haka 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haka win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights