VPS 3-2 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VPS at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VPS vs Haka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lemonsoft Stadion plays host to VPS versus Haka in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 18 August 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
VPS's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VPS have posted 5W 3D 2L at Lemonsoft Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — VPS are significantly better at Lemonsoft Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Haka (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Haka arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: VPS 3W, Haka 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with VPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
VPS half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Haka half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VPS 56% versus Haka 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 61% | Haka 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.61 xG and Haka 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 1.023 / defence 1.100 | Haka attack 0.967 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.331. Data: 41 VPS games / 41 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 42% | Draw 24% | Haka 34%. Fair-value odds: VPS 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Haka 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
VPS dominate the H2H record, yet Haka are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates VPS as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Haka (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VPS 80% | Haka 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 42% | Draw 24% | Haka 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG VPS 1.61 / Haka 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 1.023 / def 1.100 | Haka attack 0.967 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: VPS (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Haka xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs Haka kick off?
VPS vs Haka kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Haka?
VPS 3 - 2 Haka.
Where is VPS vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Haka part of?
VPS vs Haka is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 42% chance of winning, Haka a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both VPS and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Haka?
Record (5 meetings): VPS 3W | Draws 1 | Haka 1W.
What form are VPS and Haka in?
VPS (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Haka (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VPS's attack rating (1.02) and Haka's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Haka's attack (0.97x) against VPS's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
42%
2.37
24%
4.12
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
VPS xG
Total xG
3.03
1.42
Haka xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
10%
9.78
7%
14.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are VPS and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for VPS and 1.42 for Haka, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VPS come into this having played 46 games, going 25W 7D 14L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haka sit at 1.37 PPG from 46 outings (16W 15D 15L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Haka — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
VPS's home form reads 12W 5D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Haka have taken 1.10 points per game from 21 outings (7W 2D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VPS are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.43 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and Haka in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 25W 7D 14L in their last 46 games (1.78 PPG), while Haka have gone 16W 15D 15L in their last 46 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or Haka away?
VPS's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.95 PPG; Haka away: 1.10 PPG.
Have VPS or Haka been keeping clean sheets recently?
VPS have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Haka in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 26 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haka won 0-3 on 26 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VPS have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
VPS
1
Draws
3
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 6, Haka have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2025, when VPS 1-0 Haka.
Who has won more matches between VPS and Haka?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 67%, Haka 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for VPS and 67% for Haka. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haka in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play Haka?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of VPS's games and 48% of Haka's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VPS vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of VPS's matches and 67% of Haka's.
Do VPS and Haka tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Haka in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VPS edge out Haka 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat Haka 3-2 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.61 xG and Haka 1.42 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. VPS beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 1.02 / defence 1.10 against Haka attack 0.97 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 42% | Draw 24% | Haka 34%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 61%, Haka 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (46 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Haka's trading profile (46 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VPS arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.37. That form edge translated into the three points. VPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haka (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.