VPS 0-0 FF Jaro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FF Jaro at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VPS vs FF Jaro encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
VPS welcome FF Jaro to Lemonsoft Stadion in Veikkausliiga (matchday 2). Kick-off is Friday 10 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, VPS have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VPS's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FF Jaro stand at 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, FF Jaro have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FF Jaro are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from VPS's last 10 home games and FF Jaro's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for VPS, 1 for FF Jaro and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended VPS 1–3 FF Jaro — a FF Jaro win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
FF Jaro trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VPS 66% and FF Jaro 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 59% | FF Jaro 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.41 xG and FF Jaro 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 0.992 / defence 0.995 | FF Jaro attack 0.993 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.506. Data: built from VPS's last 23 games and FF Jaro's last 23. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: VPS 34% | Draw 29% | FF Jaro 37%. Fair-value odds: VPS 2.95 | Draw 3.48 | FF Jaro 2.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.41 / 1.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FF Jaro at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FF Jaro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (VPS's last 10 home games and FF Jaro's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VPS 70% (last 10 home games) | FF Jaro 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (VPS 23 games, FF Jaro 23) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs FF Jaro | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 2 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 34% | Draw 29% | FF Jaro 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG VPS 1.41 / FF Jaro 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 0.992 / def 0.995 | FF Jaro attack 0.993 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.506 • Poisson stance: FF Jaro (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.49
FF Jaro xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VPS vs FF Jaro FAQs
What time does VPS vs FF Jaro kick off?
VPS vs FF Jaro kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 10 April 2026 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs FF Jaro?
VPS 0 - 0 FF Jaro.
Where is VPS vs FF Jaro being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs FF Jaro part of?
VPS vs FF Jaro is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 2) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs FF Jaro?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 34% chance of winning, FF Jaro a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FF Jaro the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs FF Jaro?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both VPS and FF Jaro will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VPS vs FF Jaro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VPS's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against FF Jaro's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, FF Jaro's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from VPS's last 23 games and FF Jaro's last 23, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FF Jaro Win
34%
2.95
29%
3.48
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
VPS xG
Total xG
2.90
1.49
FF Jaro xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
8%
13.03
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VPS vs FF Jaro Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs FF Jaro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are VPS and FF Jaro expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for VPS and 1.49 for FF Jaro, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs FF Jaro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VPS come into this having played 29 games, going 9W 7D 13L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, FF Jaro sit at 1.28 PPG from 29 outings (11W 4D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: VPS on 1.17 PPG, FF Jaro on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
VPS's home form reads 5W 4D 5L across their last 14 home games, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, FF Jaro have taken 1.57 points per game from their last 14 away games (7W 1D 6L).
The Goals Picture
VPS are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; FF Jaro are on 1.28 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VPS have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; FF Jaro in 62%.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
FF Jaro
Blended
VPS (Home) vs FF Jaro (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VPS
Blended
FF Jaro
Blended
❓ VPS vs FF Jaro Form FAQs
What form are VPS and FF Jaro in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 9W 7D 13L in their last 29 games (1.17 PPG), while FF Jaro have gone 11W 4D 14L in their last 29 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or FF Jaro away?
FF Jaro's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.36 PPG; FF Jaro away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2025. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
VPS's record when hosting FF Jaro specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
VPS
3
Draws
1
FF Jaro
Recent Meetings
❓ VPS vs FF Jaro H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and FF Jaro?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, VPS have won 1, FF Jaro have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VPS and FF Jaro last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: FF Jaro 1-3 VPS.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VPS see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
FF Jaro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 57%, FF Jaro 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (VPS) and 57% (FF Jaro).
On the defensive side: VPS have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / FF Jaro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VPS vs FF Jaro Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VPS and FF Jaro matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of VPS's games and 57% of FF Jaro's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VPS and FF Jaro matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of VPS's recent games and 57% of FF Jaro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VPS and FF Jaro matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of VPS's recent matches and 71% of FF Jaro's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at VPS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 2, as VPS and FF Jaro drew 0-0 in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.41 xG and FF Jaro 1.49 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. VPS fell 1.4 short of their projected output. FF Jaro landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.99 / defence 0.99 against FF Jaro attack 0.99 / defence 1.00, drawn from 23/23 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it VPS 34% | Draw 29% | FF Jaro 37%, with FF Jaro to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 59%, FF Jaro 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
FF Jaro's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VPS 1.17 PPG, FF Jaro 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. FF Jaro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.