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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FF Jaro cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VPS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FF Jaro beat VPS 1-3 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Relegation Round - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.31 xG and FF Jaro 1.32 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FF Jaro outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.79 / defence 0.94 against FF Jaro attack 0.85 / defence 0.98, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VPS 36% | Draw 28% | FF Jaro 36%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual FF Jaro win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 57%, FF Jaro 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VPS's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

FF Jaro's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VPS 1.21 PPG, FF Jaro 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FF Jaro win broke the near-deadlock. VPS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FF Jaro (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights