VPS 1-1 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours VPS (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VPS face AC Oulu.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VPS host AC Oulu at Lemonsoft Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 19 June 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, VPS have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
VPS's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Lemonsoft Stadion this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Lemonsoft Stadion this season.
AC Oulu — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AC Oulu's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
VPS carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for VPS, 1 for AC Oulu and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with VPS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (58 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
AC Oulu trading profile (58 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VPS 45% versus AC Oulu 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 55% | AC Oulu 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 2.60 xG and AC Oulu 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 1.186 / defence 1.050 | AC Oulu attack 1.215 / defence 1.440. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.280. AC Oulu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.440 — this is suppressing VPS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AC Oulu have an above-average attack strength of 1.215 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 VPS games / 33 AC Oulu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 58% | Draw 20% | AC Oulu 22%. Fair-value odds: VPS 1.72 | Draw 5.00 | AC Oulu 4.55. The model has a clear lean to VPS (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.23. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.23 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.60 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VPS as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.23 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VPS 50% | AC Oulu 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Jun 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 58% | Draw 20% | AC Oulu 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 75% | xG VPS 2.60 / AC Oulu 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 1.186 / def 1.050 | AC Oulu attack 1.215 / def 1.440 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: VPS (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.63
AC Oulu xG
75%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs AC Oulu kick off?
VPS vs AC Oulu kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 19 June 2024 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs AC Oulu?
VPS 1 - 1 AC Oulu.
Where is VPS vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs AC Oulu part of?
VPS vs AC Oulu is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 58% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 22% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both VPS and AC Oulu will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and AC Oulu?
Record (4 meetings): VPS 3W | Draws 0 | AC Oulu 1W.
What form are VPS and AC Oulu in?
VPS (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. AC Oulu (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from VPS's attack rating (1.19) and AC Oulu's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 2.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AC Oulu's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.0%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
58%
1.74
20%
4.99
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
2 – 2
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
VPS xG
Total xG
4.23
1.63
AC Oulu xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.06
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
7%
13.40
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
2%
59.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are VPS and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for VPS and 1.63 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 4.23.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs AC Oulu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VPS come into this having played 58 games, going 29W 8D 21L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, AC Oulu sit at 1.45 PPG from 58 outings (24W 12D 22L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: VPS on 1.64 PPG, AC Oulu on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
VPS's home form reads 11W 5D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, AC Oulu have taken 1.37 points per game from 27 outings (11W 4D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
VPS are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 1.57 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu in 64%.
Last 58 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Current Season
AC Oulu
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 29W 8D 21L in their last 58 games (1.64 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 24W 12D 22L in their last 58 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or AC Oulu away?
VPS's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.41 PPG; AC Oulu away: 1.37 PPG.
Have VPS or AC Oulu been keeping clean sheets recently?
VPS have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AC Oulu in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jun 2026, when VPS won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VPS's record when hosting AC Oulu specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VPS
1
Draws
4
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and AC Oulu?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 5, AC Oulu have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VPS and AC Oulu last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when VPS 5-1 AC Oulu.
Who has won more matches between VPS and AC Oulu?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 44%, AC Oulu 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for VPS and 74% for AC Oulu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VPS have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play AC Oulu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of VPS's games and 70% of AC Oulu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VPS vs AC Oulu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of VPS's matches and 74% of AC Oulu's.
Do VPS and AC Oulu tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, AC Oulu in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VPS and AC Oulu share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS and AC Oulu finished level at 1-1 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 2.60 xG and AC Oulu 1.63 xG, a combined 4.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. VPS fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 1.19 / defence 1.05 against AC Oulu attack 1.22 / defence 1.44, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 58% | Draw 20% | AC Oulu 22%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 55%, AC Oulu 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (58 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
AC Oulu's trading profile (58 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VPS 1.64 PPG, AC Oulu 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.