Turku PS 1-3 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Turku PS at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Turku PS vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Turku PS host Ilves at Veritas Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 20 July 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Odds Analysis
Ilves are the shorter-priced side — market prices: Turku PS 2.73 (34%) | Draw 3.47 (27%) | Ilves 2.36 (39%).
Form Guide
Turku PS — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Turku PS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Turku PS's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 1L across 9 games at Veritas Stadion this term (2.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Veritas Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.44 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Turku PS are significantly better at Veritas Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ilves stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Turku PS at 1.30 PPG versus Ilves's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Turku PS, 1 for Ilves and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2026, ended 0–1 with Ilves winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Turku PS in-play and half-time data (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Ilves in-play and half-time data (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Turku PS 53% versus Ilves 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Turku PS 53% | Ilves 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Turku PS 2.46 xG and Ilves 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Turku PS attack 1.091 / defence 0.923 | Ilves attack 1.154 / defence 1.480. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.154. Ilves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.480 — this is suppressing Turku PS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Turku PS games / 37 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Turku PS 63% | Draw 21% | Ilves 16%. Fair-value odds: Turku PS 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Ilves 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Turku PS (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Poisson rates Turku PS at 63% but the market prices Ilves shorter — model and market disagree on the likely winner; consider draw no bet on the home side.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Turku PS at 63% — clear model lean. The model sees Turku PS as more likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 63% versus the market's fair-implied 34% (priced at 2.73). Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game. The model sees Over 2.5 as more likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 71% versus the market's fair-implied 56% (priced at 1.67).
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Turku PS 44% | Ilves 80% BTTS from recent games. Market pricing (1.53, fair-implied 60%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Turku PS vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Veritas Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 20 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Turku PS 63% | Draw 21% | Ilves 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 66% | xG Turku PS 2.46 / Ilves 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Turku PS attack 1.091 / def 0.923 | Ilves attack 1.154 / def 1.480 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Turku PS (63%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: Turku PS 2.73 (impl 34%) | Draw 3.47 (impl 27%) | Ilves 2.36 (impl 39%) • Market favourite: Ilves at 2.36 • Poisson vs market contradiction: market prices Ilves as favourite (implied 39%) but Poisson rates Turku PS higher at 63% — model diverges from the market; potential value on the home side • Turku PS Win: Poisson 63% vs market fair-implied 34% (29pp gap) — the model sees Turku PS as more likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Ilves Win: Poisson 16% vs market fair-implied 39% (23pp gap) — the model sees Ilves as less likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.67 (impl 60%) / Under 2.5 2.14 (impl 47%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 71% • Goals: Poisson rates Over 2.5 at 71% vs the market's fair-implied 56% (15pp gap) — the model sees Over 2.5 as more likely than the market's pricing reflects. • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.53 (impl 65%) / No 2.31 (impl 43%) | Poisson BTTS probability 66%
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Turku PS xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Ilves xG
66%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Turku PS vs Ilves kick off?
Turku PS vs Ilves kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 20 July 2026 at Veritas Stadion.
What was the final score in Turku PS vs Ilves?
Turku PS 1 - 3 Ilves.
Where is Turku PS vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Veritas Stadion.
What competition is Turku PS vs Ilves part of?
Turku PS vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Turku PS vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Turku PS a 63% chance of winning, Ilves a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Turku PS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Turku PS vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Turku PS and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will Turku PS vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Turku PS and Ilves?
Record (1 meetings): Turku PS 0W | Draws 0 | Ilves 1W.
What form are Turku PS and Ilves in?
Turku PS (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Ilves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Turku PS vs Ilves?
1X2 market: Turku PS 2.73 (impl 34%) | Draw 3.47 (impl 27%) | Ilves 2.36 (impl 39%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Turku PS's attack rating (1.09) and Ilves's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 2.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus Turku PS's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 3-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Turku PS Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.81
16%
6.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Turku PS xG
Total xG
3.69
1.23
Ilves xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
6.16
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
9%
11.66
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
1%
71.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Turku PS vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Turku PS and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Turku PS and 1.23 for Ilves, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Turku PS vs Ilves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Turku PS have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 8W 4D 5L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Turku PS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ilves's form line: 4W 5D 8L from 17 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Turku PS are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ilves.
Venue Form
On home soil, Turku PS have posted 2.44 PPG from 9 outings (7W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Turku PS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ilves have gone 0W 3D 6L from 9 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ilves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Turku PS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Turku PS are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.65 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ilves in 65%.
Defensively: Turku PS have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Turku PS
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Turku PS and Ilves in coming into this match?
Turku PS have gone 8W 4D 5L in their last 17 games (1.65 PPG), while Ilves have gone 4W 5D 8L in their last 17 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Turku PS at home or Ilves away?
Turku PS's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Turku PS at home: 2.44 PPG; Ilves away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Turku PS or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Turku PS have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Ilves in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 20 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Turku PS
0
Draws
2
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Turku PS and Ilves?
From 2 meetings on record, Turku PS have won 0, Ilves have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Turku PS and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 20 July 2026, when Turku PS 1-3 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Turku PS and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Turku PS see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Turku PS 44%, Ilves 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Turku PS and 78% for Ilves. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Turku PS keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Turku PS home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Turku PS play Ilves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Turku PS's games and 78% of Ilves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Turku PS vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Turku PS's matches and 78% of Ilves's.
Do Turku PS and Ilves tend to score early?
Turku PS have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Ilves in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ilves cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Turku PS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat Turku PS 1-3 at Veritas Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Turku PS 2.46 xG and Ilves 1.23 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Turku PS fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Ilves outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Turku PS attack 1.09 / defence 0.92 against Ilves attack 1.15 / defence 1.48, drawn from 15/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Turku PS 63% | Draw 21% | Ilves 16%, with Turku PS to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Ilves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Turku PS 53%, Ilves 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Turku PS's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Ilves's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Turku PS arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Ilves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Turku PS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.