Poisson model rates Turku PS at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Turku PS vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Turku PS host Ilves at Veritas Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 20 July 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Odds Analysis
Ilves are the shorter-priced side — market prices: Turku PS 2.73 (34%) | Draw 3.47 (27%) | Ilves 2.36 (39%).
Form Guide
Turku PS — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Turku PS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Turku PS's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 1L across 9 games at Veritas Stadion this term (2.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Veritas Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.44 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Turku PS are significantly better at Veritas Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ilves stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Turku PS at 1.30 PPG versus Ilves's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Ilves have the better historical record — 9 wins from 9 previous contests against 0 for Turku PS.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2026, ended 0–1 with Ilves winning.
It is worth noting that Ilves have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 9 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Team Stats
Turku PS have played 15 games this season, recording 6W 4D 5L. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / – (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 15 games (13%). Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game.
Across 15 matches this season, Ilves have gone 4W 4D 7L. Attacking returns: 1.7 goals per game; defensive: 1.9 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 5-0 (H) / – (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 5-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 1 game this season. 4 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 15 games (13%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 0 missed from 6 awarded. Most used formation: 3-4-2-1. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.
Ilves have been the more prolific side this season at 1.70 goals per game compared to 1.30 for the hosts. Turku PS have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 1.10 per game against Ilves's 1.90. Turku PS lead on clean sheets this season (5 vs 4). Ilves have been awarded 6 penalties this season (6 scored).
Standings Snapshot
Turku PS hold the table advantage, sitting 7th with 22 points — 2 positions and 6 points clear of Ilves in 9th.
Turku PS's home record this season stands at 6W 1D 1L. On the road, Ilves's record stands at 0W 3D 5L this term. Turku PS: Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group). Ilves: Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group).
Trading Patterns
Turku PS in-play and half-time data (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Ilves in-play and half-time data (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Turku PS 53% versus Ilves 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Turku PS 53% | Ilves 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Turku PS 2.48 xG and Ilves 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Turku PS attack 1.082 / defence 0.920 | Ilves attack 1.141 / defence 1.468. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.158. Ilves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.468 — this is suppressing Turku PS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Turku PS games / 37 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Turku PS 64% | Draw 20% | Ilves 16%. Fair-value odds: Turku PS 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Ilves 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Turku PS (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.48 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Poisson rates Turku PS at 64% but the market prices Ilves shorter — model and market disagree on the likely winner; consider draw no bet on the home side.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Turku PS at 64% — clear model lean. The model sees Turku PS as more likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 64% versus the market's fair-implied 34% (priced at 2.73). Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game. The model sees Over 2.5 as more likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 71% versus the market's fair-implied 56% (priced at 1.67).
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Turku PS 44% | Ilves 80% BTTS from recent games. Market pricing (1.53, fair-implied 60%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Turku PS vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Veritas Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 20 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (9 meetings): Turku PS 0W | Draws 0 | Ilves 9W • Goals trend: 2.11 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Turku PS 1 – 18 Ilves • H2H markets: BTTS 11% | Over 2.5 22% | Win rates: Turku PS 0% / Draw 0% / Ilves 100% • Historical edge: Ilves dominant — 9W from 9 meetings (100% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Ilves (historical win rate 100%) but Poisson model rates Turku PS as more likely (home 64% / draw 20% / away 16%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.11/game (22% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.70 (71% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 11%, Poisson probability 65% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Turku PS (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W • Ilves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L • Turku PS home split: 2.44 PPG from 9 | GF 1.89 / GA 0.67 | CS 5 • Ilves away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | CS 0 • Form edge: minimal separation (Turku PS 1.30 PPG vs Ilves 1.40 PPG) • xG vs form (Turku PS): Poisson projects 2.48 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.89 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Ilves): Poisson projects 1.22 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.50 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.70 (71% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~62% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 65% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Turku PS 64% | Draw 20% | Ilves 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 65% | xG Turku PS 2.48 / Ilves 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Turku PS attack 1.082 / def 0.920 | Ilves attack 1.141 / def 1.468 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Turku PS (64%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: Turku PS 2.73 (impl 34%) | Draw 3.47 (impl 27%) | Ilves 2.36 (impl 39%) • Market favourite: Ilves at 2.36 • Poisson vs market contradiction: market prices Ilves as favourite (implied 39%) but Poisson rates Turku PS higher at 64% — model diverges from the market; potential value on the home side • Turku PS Win: Poisson 64% vs market fair-implied 34% (30pp gap) — the model sees Turku PS as more likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Ilves Win: Poisson 16% vs market fair-implied 39% (23pp gap) — the model sees Ilves as less likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.67 (impl 60%) / Under 2.5 2.14 (impl 47%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 71% • Goals: Poisson rates Over 2.5 at 71% vs the market's fair-implied 56% (15pp gap) — the model sees Over 2.5 as more likely than the market's pricing reflects. • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.53 (impl 65%) / No 2.31 (impl 43%) | Poisson BTTS probability 65%
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
Turku PS xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Ilves xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Turku PS vs Ilves kick off?
Turku PS vs Ilves is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Monday 20 July 2026 at Veritas Stadion.
Where is Turku PS vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Veritas Stadion.
What competition is Turku PS vs Ilves part of?
Turku PS vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Turku PS vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Turku PS a 64% chance of winning, Ilves a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Turku PS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Turku PS vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Turku PS and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will Turku PS vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Turku PS and Ilves?
• Record (9 meetings): Turku PS 0W | Draws 0 | Ilves 9W • Goals trend: 2.11 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Turku PS 1 – 18 Ilves • H2H markets: BTTS 11% | Over 2.5 22% | Win rates: Turku PS 0% / Draw 0% / Ilves 100% • Historical edge: Ilves dominant — 9W from 9 meetings (100% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Ilves (historical win rate 100%) but Poisson model rates Turku PS as more likely (home 64% / draw 20% / away 16%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.11/game (22% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.70 (71% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 11%, Poisson probability 65% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Turku PS and Ilves in?
• Turku PS (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W • Ilves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L • Turku PS home split: 2.44 PPG from 9 | GF 1.89 / GA 0.67 | CS 5 • Ilves away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | CS 0 • Form edge: minimal separation (Turku PS 1.30 PPG vs Ilves 1.40 PPG) • xG vs form (Turku PS): Poisson projects 2.48 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.89 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Ilves): Poisson projects 1.22 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.50 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.70 (71% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~62% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 65% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Turku PS vs Ilves?
• 1X2 market: Turku PS 2.73 (impl 34%) | Draw 3.47 (impl 27%) | Ilves 2.36 (impl 39%) • Market favourite: Ilves at 2.36 • Poisson vs market contradiction: market prices Ilves as favourite (implied 39%) but Poisson rates Turku PS higher at 64% — model diverges from the market; potential value on the home side • Turku PS Win: Poisson 64% vs market fair-implied 34% (30pp gap) — the model sees Turku PS as more likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Ilves Win: Poisson 16% vs market fair-implied 39% (23pp gap) — the model sees Ilves as less likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.67 (impl 60%) / Under 2.5 2.14 (impl 47%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 71% • Goals: Poisson rates Over 2.5 at 71% vs the market's fair-implied 56% (15pp gap) — the model sees Over 2.5 as more likely than the market's pricing reflects. • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.53 (impl 65%) / No 2.31 (impl 43%) | Poisson BTTS probability 65%