SJK vs Mariehamn – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates SJK at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SJK vs Mariehamn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to OmaSp Stadion to face SJK in Veikkausliiga, Relegation Group - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 18 September 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
SJK (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at OmaSp Stadion, SJK have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for SJK against 1.00 for Mariehamn. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Across 10 previous meetings, SJK are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 3, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2026, ended 0–2 with Mariehamn winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SJK and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
SJK — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 67% versus Mariehamn 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 69% | Mariehamn 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 2.19 xG and Mariehamn 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.101 / defence 1.122 | Mariehamn attack 0.904 / defence 1.450. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.167. Mariehamn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.450 — this is suppressing SJK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 SJK games / 44 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 60% | Draw 20% | Mariehamn 20%. Fair-value odds: SJK 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Mariehamn 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SJK (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SJK 70% | Mariehamn 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Group - 25 | Venue: OmaSp Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 60% | Draw 20% | Mariehamn 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG SJK 2.19 / Mariehamn 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.101 / def 1.122 | Mariehamn attack 0.904 / def 1.450 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: SJK (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Mariehamn xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Mariehamn kick off?
SJK vs Mariehamn is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Friday 18 September 2026 at OmaSp Stadion.
Where is SJK vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at OmaSp Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Mariehamn part of?
SJK vs Mariehamn is a Relegation Group - 25 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 60% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SJK and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Mariehamn?
Record (10 meetings): SJK 7W | Draws 0 | Mariehamn 3W.
What form are SJK and Mariehamn in?
SJK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SJK's attack at 1.10x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.90x) against SJK's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
60%
1.66
20%
5.00
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
SJK xG
Total xG
3.38
1.19
Mariehamn xG
1.66
60%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
11%
8.94
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
2%
45.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are SJK and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for SJK and 1.19 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Mariehamn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, SJK have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 17W 14D 18L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn's form line: 11W 13D 25L from 49 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for SJK against 0.94 for Mariehamn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SJK have posted 1.50 PPG from 24 outings (10W 6D 8L).
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 4W 6D 14L from 24 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SJK are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.04 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SJK have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 17W 14D 18L in their last 49 games (1.33 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 11W 13D 25L in their last 49 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Mariehamn away?
SJK's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.50 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won 0-4 on 21 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
SJK
0
Draws
3
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 7, Mariehamn have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Mariehamn 2-0 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Mariehamn?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 67%, Mariehamn 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SJK and 54% for Mariehamn. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mariehamn in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SJK's games and 54% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SJK's matches and 54% of Mariehamn's.
Do SJK and Mariehamn tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.