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Shock result as KuPS defy the odds to beat SJK 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KuPS beat SJK 0-1 at OmaSp Stadion, Championship Round - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.52 xG and KuPS 1.25 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SJK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.12 / defence 0.82 against KuPS attack 0.92 / defence 0.81, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SJK 42% | Draw 27% | KuPS 30%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual KuPS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 74%, KuPS 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SJK's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

KuPS's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SJK 1.71 PPG, KuPS 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KuPS win broke the near-deadlock. SJK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. KuPS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights