SJK 0-1 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 41%, yet in-form KuPS provide a compelling counter-argument — this SJK vs KuPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
OmaSP Stadion plays host to SJK versus KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
SJK (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at OmaSP Stadion, SJK have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
KuPS have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, KuPS are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SJK have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, KuPS in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: SJK 0W, KuPS 1W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with KuPS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 60% versus KuPS 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 60% | KuPS 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.69 xG and KuPS 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.147 / defence 1.188 | KuPS attack 1.039 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.248. Data: 44 SJK games / 44 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 41% | Draw 24% | KuPS 35%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | KuPS 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form KuPS (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SJK 80% | KuPS 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 41% | Draw 24% | KuPS 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG SJK 1.69 / KuPS 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.147 / def 1.188 | KuPS attack 1.039 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: SJK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.54
KuPS xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs KuPS kick off?
SJK vs KuPS kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs KuPS?
SJK 0 - 1 KuPS.
Where is SJK vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs KuPS part of?
SJK vs KuPS is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 41% chance of winning, KuPS a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both SJK and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and KuPS?
Record (3 meetings): SJK 0W | Draws 2 | KuPS 1W.
What form are SJK and KuPS in?
SJK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. KuPS (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SJK's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against KuPS's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.04x) against SJK's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
41%
2.45
24%
4.10
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
SJK xG
Total xG
3.23
1.54
KuPS xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
9%
11.44
6%
15.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are SJK and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for SJK and 1.54 for KuPS, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SJK's recent record stands at 22W 14D 16L from 52 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS, meanwhile, have gone 31W 10D 11L across 52 games — 1.98 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SJK heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SJK have managed 12W 4D 9L from 25 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KuPS's away record stands at 12W 9D 4L across 25 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SJK are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.63 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and KuPS in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 22W 14D 16L in their last 52 games (1.54 PPG), while KuPS have gone 31W 10D 11L in their last 52 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.60 PPG; KuPS away: 1.80 PPG.
Have SJK or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, KuPS in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SJK
4
Draws
6
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 0, KuPS have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SJK and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when SJK 0-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between SJK and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 72%, KuPS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (SJK) and 44% (KuPS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KuPS in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play KuPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of SJK's games and 52% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of SJK's matches and 44% of KuPS's.
Do SJK and KuPS tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, KuPS in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as KuPS defy the odds to beat SJK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat SJK 0-1 at OmaSP Stadion, Championship Round - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.69 xG and KuPS 1.54 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SJK fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.15 / defence 1.19 against KuPS attack 1.04 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 41% | Draw 24% | KuPS 35%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual KuPS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 60%, KuPS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
KuPS's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.54. That form edge translated into the three points. SJK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward. KuPS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.