SJK 1-1 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 37%, yet in-form KuPS provide a compelling counter-argument — this SJK vs KuPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
OmaSP Stadion plays host to SJK versus KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
SJK (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at OmaSP Stadion, SJK have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
KuPS have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, KuPS are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SJK 0W, KuPS 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 54% versus KuPS 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 48% | KuPS 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.44 xG and KuPS 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.123 / defence 1.021 | KuPS attack 0.985 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.342. Data: 27 SJK games / 26 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 37% | Draw 31% | KuPS 32%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | KuPS 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form KuPS (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SJK 80% | KuPS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 37% | Draw 31% | KuPS 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG SJK 1.44 / KuPS 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.123 / def 1.021 | KuPS attack 0.985 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: SJK (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.35
KuPS xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs KuPS kick off?
SJK vs KuPS kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs KuPS?
SJK 1 - 1 KuPS.
Where is SJK vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs KuPS part of?
SJK vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 37% chance of winning, KuPS a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both SJK and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and KuPS?
Record (1 meetings): SJK 0W | Draws 1 | KuPS 0W.
What form are SJK and KuPS in?
SJK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. KuPS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SJK's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against KuPS's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (0.98x) against SJK's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
37%
2.73
31%
3.24
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
SJK xG
Total xG
2.79
1.35
KuPS xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
9%
10.54
8%
13.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are SJK and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for SJK and 1.35 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SJK's recent record stands at 21W 12D 21L from 54 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five.
KuPS, meanwhile, have gone 33W 11D 10L across 54 games — 2.04 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SJK heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SJK have managed 13W 6D 7L from 26 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KuPS's away record stands at 15W 6D 5L across 26 trips, a 1.96 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SJK are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.56 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Current Season
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and KuPS in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 21W 12D 21L in their last 54 games (1.39 PPG), while KuPS have gone 33W 11D 10L in their last 54 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.73 PPG; KuPS away: 1.96 PPG.
Have SJK or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, KuPS in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SJK
4
Draws
6
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 0, KuPS have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SJK and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when SJK 0-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between SJK and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 65%, KuPS 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (SJK) and 42% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play KuPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of SJK's games and 46% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of SJK's recent games and 42% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SJK and KuPS tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, KuPS in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SJK and KuPS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK and KuPS finished level at 1-1 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.44 xG and KuPS 1.35 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.12 / defence 1.02 against KuPS attack 0.98 / defence 0.84, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 37% | Draw 31% | KuPS 32%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 48%, KuPS 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.