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Dominant SJK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kooteepee.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SJK beat Kooteepee 3-0 at OmaSp Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 3.03 xG and Kooteepee 1.22 xG, a combined 4.25. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Kooteepee landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.28 / defence 0.90 against Kooteepee attack 0.91 / defence 1.51, drawn from 39/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SJK 73% | Draw 15% | Kooteepee 12%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 71%, Kooteepee 82%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SJK's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.

Kooteepee's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. SJK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Kooteepee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights