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Prediction vindicated as SJK edge out Inter Turku 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SJK beat Inter Turku 2-1 at OmaSp Stadion, Championship Round - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.48 xG and Inter Turku 1.31 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.13 / defence 0.80 against Inter Turku attack 0.99 / defence 0.78, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SJK 40% | Draw 27% | Inter Turku 32%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 71%, Inter Turku 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SJK's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Inter Turku's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SJK 1.60 PPG, Inter Turku 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock. Inter Turku (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights