SJK 3-1 Inter Turku – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs Inter Turku fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Inter Turku travel to OmaSP Stadion to take on SJK. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 May 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SJK — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SJK's home record at OmaSP Stadion: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter Turku stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Inter Turku have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SJK 0.80 PPG, Inter Turku 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for SJK, 0 for Inter Turku and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with SJK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SJK in-play tendencies (56 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Inter Turku in-play tendencies (56 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 54% versus Inter Turku 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 48% | Inter Turku 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 2.06 xG and Inter Turku 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.128 / defence 0.993 | Inter Turku attack 0.910 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.289. Inter Turku bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing SJK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 SJK games / 28 Inter Turku games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 56% | Draw 25% | Inter Turku 19%. Fair-value odds: SJK 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Inter Turku 5.26. The model has a clear lean to SJK (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SJK are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SJK 80% | Inter Turku 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Inter Turku | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 56% | Draw 25% | Inter Turku 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG SJK 2.06 / Inter Turku 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.128 / def 0.993 | Inter Turku attack 0.910 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: SJK (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Inter Turku xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Inter Turku kick off?
SJK vs Inter Turku kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 17 May 2024 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Inter Turku?
SJK 3 - 1 Inter Turku.
Where is SJK vs Inter Turku being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Inter Turku part of?
SJK vs Inter Turku is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Inter Turku?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 56% chance of winning, Inter Turku a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Inter Turku?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SJK and Inter Turku will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Inter Turku have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Inter Turku?
Record (2 meetings): SJK 2W | Draws 0 | Inter Turku 0W.
What form are SJK and Inter Turku in?
SJK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Inter Turku (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SJK's attack at 1.13x the league average against Inter Turku's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter Turku's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
56%
1.79
25%
3.92
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
SJK xG
Total xG
3.23
1.17
Inter Turku xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
13%
7.86
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
2%
42.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Inter Turku?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are SJK and Inter Turku expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for SJK and 1.17 for Inter Turku, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Inter Turku?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SJK come into this having played 56 games, going 22W 12D 22L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D.
On the other side, Inter Turku sit at 1.21 PPG from 56 outings (19W 11D 26L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SJK on 1.39 PPG, Inter Turku on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SJK's home form reads 14W 6D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Inter Turku have taken 1.03 points per game from 29 outings (8W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SJK are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Inter Turku are on 1.34 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Inter Turku in 62%.
Last 56 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Current Season
Inter Turku
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Inter Turku in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 22W 12D 22L in their last 56 games (1.39 PPG), while Inter Turku have gone 19W 11D 26L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Inter Turku away?
SJK's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.66 PPG; Inter Turku away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Inter Turku won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SJK's record when hosting Inter Turku specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SJK
2
Draws
4
Inter Turku
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Inter Turku?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 4, Inter Turku have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Inter Turku last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when Inter Turku 1-1 SJK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Inter Turku are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SJK at 66%, Inter Turku at 66%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for SJK and 66% for Inter Turku. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter Turku in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Inter Turku away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Inter Turku?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of SJK's games and 66% of Inter Turku's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs Inter Turku usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of SJK's matches and 66% of Inter Turku's.
Do SJK and Inter Turku tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Inter Turku in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SJK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Inter Turku.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Inter Turku 3-1 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 2.06 xG and Inter Turku 1.17 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.13 / defence 0.99 against Inter Turku attack 0.91 / defence 1.24, drawn from 29/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 56% | Draw 25% | Inter Turku 19%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 48%, Inter Turku 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (56 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Inter Turku's trading profile (56 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.39 PPG, Inter Turku 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock. SJK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Inter Turku (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.