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Prediction vindicated as SJK edge out Ilves 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SJK beat Ilves 2-1 at OmaSp Stadion, Championship Round - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.58 xG and Ilves 1.52 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.13 / defence 0.81 against Ilves attack 1.14 / defence 0.84, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SJK 38% | Draw 26% | Ilves 36%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 73%, Ilves 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SJK's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Ilves's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.63. Form was overturned, with SJK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights