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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SJK and Ilves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SJK and Ilves finished level at 1-1 at OmaSp Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.50 xG and Ilves 1.97 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Ilves landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.30 / defence 0.93 against Ilves attack 1.37 / defence 0.75, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SJK 30% | Draw 22% | Ilves 48%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 71%, Ilves 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SJK's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Ilves's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SJK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights