SJK 0-0 Honka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SJK at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SJK vs Honka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SJK and Honka meet at OmaSP Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 4. This fixture gets under way on Monday 10 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
SJK (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at OmaSP Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — SJK are significantly better at OmaSP Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Honka have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Honka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Honka's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SJK have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Honka in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: SJK 3W, Honka 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2022, ended 3–2 with SJK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SJK — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Honka — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 50% versus Honka 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 50% | Honka 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.50 xG and Honka 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.240 / defence 0.936 | Honka attack 1.045 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.450. Data: 44 SJK games / 44 Honka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 39% | Draw 26% | Honka 35%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Honka 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SJK are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SJK 80% | Honka 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Honka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 10 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 39% | Draw 26% | Honka 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG SJK 1.50 / Honka 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.240 / def 0.936 | Honka attack 1.045 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: SJK (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Honka xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Honka kick off?
SJK vs Honka kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 10 October 2022 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Honka?
SJK 0 - 0 Honka.
Where is SJK vs Honka being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Honka part of?
SJK vs Honka is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Honka?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 39% chance of winning, Honka a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Honka?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SJK and Honka will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Honka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Honka?
Record (4 meetings): SJK 3W | Draws 0 | Honka 1W.
What form are SJK and Honka in?
SJK (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Honka (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SJK's attack at 1.24x the league average against Honka's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Honka's attack (1.04x) against SJK's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
39%
2.59
26%
3.79
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
SJK xG
Total xG
2.92
1.42
Honka xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
9%
10.68
8%
12.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Honka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are SJK and Honka expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for SJK and 1.42 for Honka, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Honka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SJK come into this having played 52 games, going 24W 10D 18L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Honka sit at 1.54 PPG from 52 outings (23W 11D 18L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Honka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for SJK against 1.54 for Honka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SJK's home form reads 14W 7D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Honka have taken 1.28 points per game from 25 outings (9W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SJK are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Honka are on 1.73 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
Honka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Honka in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 24W 10D 18L in their last 52 games (1.58 PPG), while Honka have gone 23W 11D 18L in their last 52 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Honka away?
SJK's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.96 PPG; Honka away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Honka won 5-1 on 25 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Honka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
SJK
2
Draws
2
Honka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Honka?
From 8 meetings on record, SJK have won 4, Honka have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Honka last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2023, when SJK 1-2 Honka.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Honka?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Honka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 68%, Honka 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (SJK) and 52% (Honka). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Honka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Honka?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of SJK's games and 60% of Honka's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs Honka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of SJK's matches and 52% of Honka's.
Do SJK and Honka tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Honka in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SJK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at OmaSP Stadion, Championship Round - 4, as SJK and Honka drew 0-0 in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.50 xG and Honka 1.42 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SJK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Honka landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.24 / defence 0.94 against Honka attack 1.04 / defence 0.86, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 39% | Draw 26% | Honka 35%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 50%, Honka 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Honka's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.58 PPG, Honka 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SJK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Honka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.