SJK 0-0 Honka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SJK face Honka.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SJK and Honka meet at OmaSP Stadion in Veikkausliiga (Championship Round - 4). This fixture gets under way on Monday 10 October 2022 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
SJK (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
SJK's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — SJK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Honka have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Honka's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from SJK's last 10 home games and Honka's last 10 away games) — SJK have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Honka in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, SJK edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 10 Jul 2022, ended SJK 3–2 Honka — a SJK win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SJK — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Honka — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 50% versus Honka 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 50% | Honka 56%). Note also that Honka surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while SJK recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.50 xG and Honka 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.240 / defence 0.936 | Honka attack 1.045 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.450. Data: built from SJK's last 44 games and Honka's last 44.
Result probabilities: SJK 39% | Draw 26% | Honka 35%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.59 | Draw 3.79 | Honka 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.50 / 1.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SJK are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SJK's last 10 home games and Honka's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SJK 80% (last 10 home games) | Honka 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Honka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 10 October 2022 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 39% | Draw 26% | Honka 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG SJK 1.50 / Honka 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.240 / def 0.936 | Honka attack 1.045 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: SJK (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Honka xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SJK vs Honka FAQs
What time does SJK vs Honka kick off?
SJK vs Honka kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 10 October 2022 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Honka?
SJK 0 - 0 Honka.
Where is SJK vs Honka being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Honka part of?
SJK vs Honka is a Veikkausliiga fixture (Championship Round - 4) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Honka?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 39% chance of winning, Honka a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Honka?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SJK and Honka will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SJK vs Honka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SJK's attack at 1.24x the league average against Honka's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Honka's attack (1.04x) against SJK's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from SJK's last 44 games and Honka's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
39%
2.59
26%
3.79
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
SJK xG
Total xG
2.92
1.42
Honka xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
9%
10.68
8%
12.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SJK vs Honka Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Honka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are SJK and Honka expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for SJK and 1.42 for Honka, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Honka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SJK come into this having played 52 games, going 24W 10D 18L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Honka sit at 1.54 PPG from 52 outings (23W 11D 18L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for SJK against 1.54 for Honka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SJK's home form reads 14W 7D 4L across their last 25 home games, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Honka have taken 1.28 points per game from their last 25 away games (9W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SJK are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Honka are on 1.73 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
Honka
Blended
SJK (Home) vs Honka (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SJK
Blended
Honka
Blended
❓ SJK vs Honka Form FAQs
What form are SJK and Honka in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 24W 10D 18L in their last 52 games (1.58 PPG), while Honka have gone 23W 11D 18L in their last 52 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Honka away?
SJK's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.96 PPG; Honka away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 16 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Honka won Honka 5-1 SJK on 25 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Honka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
SJK
2
Draws
2
Honka
Recent Meetings
❓ SJK vs Honka H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Honka?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, SJK have won 4, Honka have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Honka last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 September 2023: SJK 1-2 Honka.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Honka?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Honka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 68%, Honka 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (SJK) and 52% (Honka). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Honka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SJK vs Honka Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SJK and Honka matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of SJK's games and 60% of Honka's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SJK and Honka matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of SJK's matches and 52% of Honka's.
Do SJK and Honka matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of SJK's recent matches and 64% of Honka's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SJK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at OmaSP Stadion, Championship Round - 4, as SJK and Honka drew 0-0 in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.50 xG and Honka 1.42 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SJK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Honka landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.24 / defence 0.94 against Honka attack 1.04 / defence 0.86, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 39% | Draw 26% | Honka 35%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 50%, Honka 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Honka's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.58 PPG, Honka 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SJK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Honka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.