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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SJK and HJK Helsinki share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at OmaSp Stadion, Championship Round - 1, as SJK and HJK Helsinki drew 3-3 in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.58 xG and HJK Helsinki 1.71 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. HJK Helsinki outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.13 / defence 0.79 against HJK Helsinki attack 1.31 / defence 0.83, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SJK 35% | Draw 25% | HJK Helsinki 40%, with HJK Helsinki to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 71%, HJK Helsinki 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SJK's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

HJK Helsinki's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SJK 1.65 PPG, HJK Helsinki 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SJK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. HJK Helsinki (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights