🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant SJK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gnistan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SJK beat Gnistan 3-0 at OmaSp Stadion, Championship Round - 10, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 2.07 xG and Gnistan 1.42 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gnistan landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.11 / defence 0.83 against Gnistan attack 1.03 / defence 1.11, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SJK 52% | Draw 23% | Gnistan 25%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 73%, Gnistan 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SJK's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Gnistan's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. SJK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Gnistan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights