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SJK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Gnistan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SJK beat Gnistan 3-1 at OmaSp Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 2.21 xG and Gnistan 1.08 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.24 / defence 0.89 against Gnistan attack 0.82 / defence 1.16, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SJK 62% | Draw 22% | Gnistan 17%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 68%, Gnistan 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SJK's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Gnistan's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SJK 1.57 PPG, Gnistan 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock. SJK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. Gnistan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights