SJK 0-1 Gnistan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs Gnistan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 21 as SJK welcome Gnistan to OmaSP Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 26 August 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, SJK have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's home record at OmaSP Stadion: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gnistan stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gnistan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gnistan have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SJK 1.70 PPG, Gnistan 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SJK, 0 for Gnistan and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with SJK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
SJK in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Gnistan in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 64% versus Gnistan 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SJK 68% | Gnistan 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 2.48 xG and Gnistan 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.294 / defence 1.292 | Gnistan attack 1.119 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.260. SJK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.294 — their λ of 2.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 SJK games / 20 Gnistan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 52% | Draw 19% | Gnistan 28%. Fair-value odds: SJK 1.92 | Draw 5.26 | Gnistan 3.57. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.31. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.31 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.48 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SJK are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 80% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 77% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SJK 80% | Gnistan 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Gnistan | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 26 Aug 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 52% | Draw 19% | Gnistan 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 77% | xG SJK 2.48 / Gnistan 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.294 / def 1.292 | Gnistan attack 1.119 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: SJK (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Gnistan xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Gnistan kick off?
SJK vs Gnistan kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 26 August 2024 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Gnistan?
SJK 0 - 1 Gnistan.
Where is SJK vs Gnistan being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Gnistan part of?
SJK vs Gnistan is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Gnistan?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 52% chance of winning, Gnistan a 28% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Gnistan?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both SJK and Gnistan will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Gnistan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Gnistan?
Record (1 meetings): SJK 1W | Draws 0 | Gnistan 0W.
What form are SJK and Gnistan in?
SJK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Gnistan (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SJK's attack rating (1.29) and Gnistan's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gnistan's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.6%. Close behind: 2-2 (6.9%), 1-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
52%
1.91
19%
5.14
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
3 – 1
6.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
SJK xG
Total xG
4.31
1.82
Gnistan xG
1.91
52%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.36
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
8%
11.99
Win to Nil
8%
11.79
2%
42.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Gnistan?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.6%.
How many goals are SJK and Gnistan expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for SJK and 1.82 for Gnistan, a combined total of 4.31.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Gnistan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SJK come into this having played 22 games, going 10W 6D 6L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gnistan sit at 1.23 PPG from 22 outings (7W 6D 9L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Gnistan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Gnistan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SJK's home form reads 6W 4D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Gnistan have taken 0.91 points per game from 11 outings (2W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SJK are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Gnistan are on 1.36 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SJK have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
Gnistan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Gnistan in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 10W 6D 6L in their last 22 games (1.64 PPG), while Gnistan have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Gnistan away?
SJK's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 2.00 PPG; Gnistan away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SJK and Gnistan runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2025, when SJK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SJK's record when hosting Gnistan specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
SJK
1
Draws
2
Gnistan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Gnistan?
From 7 meetings on record, SJK have won 4, Gnistan have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Gnistan last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Gnistan 3-2 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Gnistan?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gnistan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SJK at 82%, Gnistan at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for SJK and 64% for Gnistan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gnistan in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Gnistan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Gnistan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of SJK's games and 73% of Gnistan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs Gnistan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of SJK's matches and 64% of Gnistan's.
Do SJK and Gnistan tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Gnistan in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gnistan defy the odds to beat SJK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gnistan beat SJK 0-1 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 2.48 xG and Gnistan 1.82 xG, a combined 4.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SJK fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Gnistan landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.29 / defence 1.29 against Gnistan attack 1.12 / defence 1.15, drawn from 42/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 52% | Draw 19% | Gnistan 28%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Gnistan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 68%, Gnistan 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Gnistan's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Gnistan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SJK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Gnistan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.