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SJK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FF Jaro.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SJK beat FF Jaro 3-1 at OmaSp Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.20 xG and FF Jaro 1.00 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.11 / defence 0.97 against FF Jaro attack 0.70 / defence 0.79, drawn from 33/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SJK 41% | Draw 29% | FF Jaro 30%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 100%, FF Jaro 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. SJK scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. FF Jaro shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights