SJK 3-1 EIF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SJK at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs EIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 11 as SJK welcome EIF to OmaSP Stadion. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 12 June 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, SJK have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SJK's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at OmaSP Stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.91 xG and EIF 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.007 / defence 1.086 | EIF attack 0.841 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.227. Data: 33 SJK games / 10 EIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 53% | Draw 27% | EIF 20%. Fair-value odds: SJK 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | EIF 5.00. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SJK at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SJK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs EIF | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 Jun 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 53% | Draw 27% | EIF 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG SJK 1.91 / EIF 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.007 / def 1.086 | EIF attack 0.841 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: SJK (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.12
EIF xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs EIF kick off?
SJK vs EIF kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 12 June 2024 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs EIF?
SJK 3 - 1 EIF.
Where is SJK vs EIF being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs EIF part of?
SJK vs EIF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs EIF?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 53% chance of winning, EIF a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs EIF?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SJK and EIF will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs EIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and EIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SJK and EIF in?
SJK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. SJK home split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SJK's attack at 1.01x the league average against EIF's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, EIF's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
53%
1.87
27%
3.73
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
SJK xG
Total xG
3.03
1.12
EIF xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
3%
33.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs EIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are SJK and EIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for SJK and 1.12 for EIF, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs EIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Pre-Season
EIF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SJK and EIF runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SJK
1
Draws
0
EIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and EIF?
From 2 meetings on record, SJK have won 1, EIF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SJK and EIF last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2024, when EIF 1-1 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and EIF?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / EIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
SJK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over EIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat EIF 3-1 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.91 xG and EIF 1.12 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.01 / defence 1.09 against EIF attack 0.84 / defence 1.18, drawn from 33/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 53% | Draw 27% | EIF 20%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.